The Global Metanarrative
with Roger Arnold
Chief Economist, Financial Columnist
Wed, March 24, 2021
12:30 PM – 2:00 PM
Zoom link: https://zoom.us/j/91960788817
Meeting ID: 919 6078 8817
EO Connecticut Members, Guests & SAP’s FREE
The Greatest Event in all of Human History is Occurring Now
There are four primary issues driving human action and interaction socially, economically, and politically. They are energy, technology, debt, and demographics. These are the four areas of commonality being experienced by all of humanity today and constitute the core of the “global metanarrative”.
The global metanarrative provides a foundation upon which everyone can understand their position in the business environment and reference the probable trajectory for the business sector they are involved in, as well as the future probabilities for countries, governments, societies, and humanity broadly.
If you are not aware of the global metanarrative you are running blindly into an economic future that is being changed dramatically.
We’ll discuss the synergistic and symbiotic relationship of these 4 issues and what it portends for both the near and far future for the economy, capital markets, business, society, and humanity overall.
On the energy front, the entire world, developed and developing, is in the nascent stages of experiencing what is known as uneconomic growth. Uneconomic growth is caused by the cost of natural resources, most importantly oil and its distillate fuels for internal combustion engines, becoming too expensive for economies to afford. The era of cheap, economic oil has ended, along with all of the economic and political constructs that have built up around it since the middle of the 19th century. The era of alternative and renewable energy sources has begun and it is going to radically change all human interaction over the next generation.
For the first time in human history technology is beginning to displace and replace human labor as an input to the economy. That means that technology is now in the nascent stages of destroying more “jobs” for human beings than it creates. This too is going to radically change the way human beings interact and relate to each other through their collective organizations.
The rate of growth in public and private debt is substantially faster than the rate of growth in economic activity in the world’s primary economic areas, the US, Europe, Japan, and China. That is mathematically unsustainable and will have enormous ramifications on the ability of these economies to grow from here. Japan has already exceeded the maximum level of sovereign debt a country may carry without becoming insolvent. The other three economic collectives are on the same path.
On the demographic front, the developed world, plus China, is aging. The aging of societies present special considerations for all economies and governments because it causes a drag on private sector economic activity. Seniors consume less while also requiring public support for subsistence and healthcare. As a result, the entire structure of economies and governments will have to radically change over the next generation. In the US this process started with the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) in 2010. There will be many more changes to follow though, in the US as well as in the rest of the world.
Speaker Roger Arnold
Roger retired from daily business participation in 2019 and now advises a small group of clients with whom he has long established relationships.
He is formerly the Chief Economist for ALM Advisors, Inc.; a Pasadena, California based money management firm specializing in the structuring and management of income portfolios for high net worth individuals and institutions.
In addition, Roger is a sought after public speaker for his ability to engage audiences as he explains the relationships between political, economic, and social systems, and how they are all reflected in the global financial markets; stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and real estate.
Roger is also the former radio host of the nationally syndicated, “The Roger Arnold Show”, and a former columnist for TheStreet, Inc.
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